What is the chance of a pristine Archaeology solve in Mists?

I just heard about pristine solves, acting as quest items to encourage the archaeology grind. From that link, their summary is:

A new type of artifact is added in Mists of Pandaria--pristine solves. These solves are enhanced versions of common-quality solves. Completing them will create a quest item, which can be turned in to the Lorewalkers and displayed in their museum. The chance for creating a pristine version of an artifact instead of a common one is completely random.

Obviously random == "has some percentage chance". Has the chance of a pristine solve been discovered/calculated?

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1 Answer

My calculations show it to be about 10%

I have only 2 that weren't pristine at 20 collections (one still only at 15 collects) - if you do the probability permutation it shows 88% should be pristine by the time you get 20 of them. This jives with what I have so far.

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